Introductory Bayesian problems

22w.json

https://arbital.com/p/22w

by Eliezer Yudkowsky Feb 23 2016 updated Jul 10 2016

Bayesian problems to try to solve yourself, before beginning to learn about Bayes' rule.

Introductory problems:

  1. Diseasitis
  2. Sock-dresser search
  3. Sparking widgets
  4. Blue oysters

(Hover or click to read them.)

Comments

Emile Kroeger

Answer in: Bayes's Rule \(odds form\): Intro \(Math 1\)

Maybe this should just be a link to 1td.html, with a "hover to get the answer" ? It's not clear for me why it isn't so, if it means the reader is expected to always read the full linked explanations, or if he's expected to just look up the answer.

Emile Kroeger

Answer in: Bayes's Rule \(log odds form\)

It's not clear to me why the concept of log odds is needed to answer this problem. Or rather I feel that it isn't, and that a much simpler explanation could be given, and that the concept of log odds is shoehorned in.