Eliezer Yudkowsky I think there should be a small change here? Variable f becomes x and back to f, and I believe it should just be f?
Or, writing out the whole operation from scratch:
P(f∣e=THT)=L(e=THT∣f)⋅P(f)P(e=THT)=∗∗(1−x)⋅x⋅(1−x)⋅1∫10(1−x)⋅x⋅(1−x)⋅1\*∗df=12⋅f(1−f)2