Probability vote asks what percent probability you assign to the claim being true? For example, "What's the probability that Apple's market cap will be >=\$1T by the end of 2020?" In many ways this kind of voting is exactly like a prediction market\.
\(This page features a probability vote\.\)
I find it a bit confusing, it might work better to have a separate demo/test voting page, and/or just a screenshot (though at this stage a screenshot is probably a bad idea, since it'd need to be retaken if the graphics change)
I notice that the shade of the bar indicating how many users gave a probability estimate is visible before users give their own estimate. Won't this anchor users and result in less useful estimates? Would it be better to hide the shades and allow users to vote or select 'show estimates' before displaying the estimates of other users?
Comments
Emile Kroeger
I find it a bit confusing, it might work better to have a separate demo/test voting page, and/or just a screenshot (though at this stage a screenshot is probably a bad idea, since it'd need to be retaken if the graphics change)
Alexei Andreev
Agreed. Want to do that?
Jeff Ladish
I notice that the shade of the bar indicating how many users gave a probability estimate is visible before users give their own estimate. Won't this anchor users and result in less useful estimates? Would it be better to hide the shades and allow users to vote or select 'show estimates' before displaying the estimates of other users?
Alexei Andreev
Yup, we'll add that as an option at some point.