"It is really confusing to apply one of the init..."

https://arbital.com/p/9hc

by Eyal Roth Mar 18 2019


A study of Chinese blood donors 2 found that roughly 1 in 100,000 of them had HIV \(as determined by a very reliable gold\-standard test\)\. The non\-gold\-standard test used for initial screening had a sensitivity of 99\.7% and a specificity of 99\.8%, meaning respectively that mathbbP(positivemidHIV)\=.997 and mathbbP(negativemidnegHIV)\=.998, i\.e\., mathbbP(positivemidnegHIV)\=.002.

It is really confusing to apply one of the initial steps of a study as evidence to a prior which is the result (last step) of the same study.