{ localUrl: '../page/6d8.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/6d8', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/6d8.json', likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], pageId: '6d8', edit: '1', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '0', currentEdit: '1', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'comment', title: '""We only ran the 2012 US Presidential Election ..."', clickbait: '', textLength: '332', alias: '6d8', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'recentFirst', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'GregorGerasev', editCreatedAt: '2016-10-14 22:09:02', pageCreatorId: 'GregorGerasev', pageCreatedAt: '2016-10-14 22:09:02', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: 'AlexeiAndreev', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'true', isApprovedComment: 'true', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: 'Bayesian: Are we going there? I guess we're going there\\. My good Scientist, I mean that if you offered me either side of an even\\-money bet on whether Plum committed the murder, I'd bet that he didn't do it\\. But if you offered me a gamble that costs \\$1 if Professor Plum is innocent and pays out \\$5 if he's guilty, I'd cheerfully accept that gamble\\. We only ran the 2012 US Presidential Election one time, but that doesn't mean that on November 7th you should've refused a \\$10 bet that paid out \\$1000 if Obama won\\. In general when prediction markets and large liquid betting pools put 60% betting odds on somebody winning the presidency, that outcome tends to happen 60% of the time; they are well\\-calibrated for probabilities in that range\\. If they were systematically uncalibrated\\-\\-if in general things happened 80% of the time when prediction markets said 60%\\-\\-you could use that fact to pump mony out of prediction markets\\. And your pumping out that money would adjust the prediction\\-market prices until they were well\\-calibrated\\. If things to which prediction markets assign 70% probability happen around 7 times out of 10, why insist for reasons of ideological purity that the probability statement is meaningless?', anchorText: 'We only ran the 2012 US Presidential Election one time, but that doesn't mean that on November 7th you should've refused a \\$10 bet that paid out \\$1000 if Obama won\\.', anchorOffset: '360', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '3666', text: '"We only ran the 2012 US Presidential Election one time, but that doesn't mean that on November 7th you should've refused a $10 bet that paid out $1000 if Obama won."\n\nFirst of all, as non American I do not know what is specific about November 7th. Second, I think that some people may do not even know, that Obama has actually won.', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: 'null', muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: {}, creatorIds: [ 'GregorGerasev' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [ 'likelihood_vs_pvalue' ], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [], learnMore: [], requirements: [], subjects: [], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: {}, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '20147', pageId: '6d8', userId: 'GregorGerasev', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2016-10-14 22:09:02', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'true', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }