{ localUrl: '../page/6jn.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/6jn', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/6jn.json', likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], pageId: '6jn', edit: '1', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '0', currentEdit: '1', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'comment', title: '"I'm confused, and surely wrong, about the cance..."', clickbait: '', textLength: '1039', alias: '6jn', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'recentFirst', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'DanDavies', editCreatedAt: '2016-11-16 05:14:21', pageCreatorId: 'DanDavies', pageCreatedAt: '2016-11-16 05:14:21', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: 'AlexeiAndreev', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'true', isApprovedComment: 'true', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: '', anchorText: '', anchorOffset: '0', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '92561', text: 'I'm confused, and surely wrong, about the cancer example.\n\n1 in 10000 people are sick. 1 sick person : 9999 well persons\nmultiply by 100: 100 sick people : 999900 well persons\n99% of the sick people have positive tests: (0.99 * 100 = ) 99 Positive tests \n 1% of the well people have false positive tests: (0.01 * 999900 = 9999)\n\nUsing the odds view: number of sick persons with positive tests / total number of persons with positive tests: (99 / (99 + 9999) = 99 / 10098. Multiply top and bottom by (1/99) => (99/99) / (10098/99) = 1 / 102. The text says the answer is 1 / 101.010101... which is 99/10000.\n\nSo, try the waterfall method.\n\nprior odds of being sick: 1 in 10000.\nBeing sick: 1\nBeing well: 9999\n\nchance of having positive test while sick: 99\nchance of having positive test while well: 1\n\nodds of being sick given positive test: (1 / 9999) * (99 / 1) = 99 / 9999 = 0.00990099\nprobability of being sick given positive test: 99 / (99+9999) = 1 / 102 from above.\n\nWhere did I go wrong? Thanks in advance for any time you have!', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: 'null', muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: {}, creatorIds: [ 'DanDavies' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [ 'bayes_rule' ], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [], learnMore: [], requirements: [], subjects: [], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: {}, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '20358', pageId: '6jn', userId: 'DanDavies', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2016-11-16 05:14:21', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'true', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }