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  title: 'Harry Potter at Ollivander's',
  clickbait: 'A simple word problem on the application of Bayes rule.',
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  text: '**Harry Potter went shopping for a magic-wand, only to find out that wand which fits him the most is a twin-wand of the evil Lord Voldemort. How worried should Harry be about a possibility of some sinister connection with Voldemort (as opposed to this just being a coincidence)?**\n\nWe assume that:\n\n - the shop has 15 000 wands on offer;\n - for a typical wizard, any of them is equally likely to be the best fit;\n - upon entering, the unsuspecting Harry puts the odds of any connection with Voldemort at 1 to 1 000 and \n - Harry assumes that if any such connection existed, it would have a 10% chance of affecting the wand-choice.\n\n(example stolen from J.K. Rowling and E. Yudkowsky)\n\nThe solution can be found by applying the [1x8 Bayes' rule]:\n\nBy the assumption, the prior odds are (1 : 1 000). The likelihood ratio is (10% : 1/15000), which puts the updated probability at (1 : 1000) (1/10 : 1/15000) = (1/10 : 1/15) = ( 3 : 2). Therefore, the probability of a ``sinister connection’’ with Voldemort is 60% and Harry should be pretty worried.',
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