{ localUrl: '../page/93x.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/93x', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/93x.json', likeableId: '4122', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '1', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '1', individualLikes: [ 'kaiweynberg' ], pageId: '93x', edit: '2', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '1', currentEdit: '2', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'comment', title: '"I'm failing to grasp how the probability conver..."', clickbait: '', textLength: '104', alias: '93x', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'recentFirst', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'kaiweynberg', editCreatedAt: '2018-05-25 16:46:29', pageCreatorId: 'kaiweynberg', pageCreatedAt: '2018-05-25 16:15:46', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: '3105', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'false', isApprovedComment: 'false', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: 'Show answer\n\n\nThere's \\(1 : 9\\) bad vs\\. good widgets\\.\nBad vs\\. good widgets have a \\(12 : 4\\) relative likelihood to spark\\.\nThis simplifies to \\(1 : 9\\) x \\(3 : 1\\) = \\(3 : 9\\) = \\(1 : 3\\), 1 bad sparking widget for every 3 good sparking widgets\\.\nWhich converts to a probability of 1/\\(1\\+3\\) = 1/4 = 25%; that is, 25% of sparking widgets are bad\\.\n\n\nSeeing sparks didn't make us "believe the widget is bad"; the probability only went to 25%, which is less than 50/50\\. But this doesn't mean we say, "I still believe this widget is good\\!" and toss out the evidence and ignore it\\. A bad widget is relatively more likely to emit sparks, and therefore seeing this evidence should cause us to think it relatively more likely that the widget is a bad one, even if the probability hasn't yet gone over 50%\\. We increase our probability from 10% to 25%\\.\n\n\n\n', anchorText: 'Which converts to a probability of 1/\\(1\\+3\\) = 1/4 = 25%; that is, 25% of sparking widgets are bad\\.', anchorOffset: '251', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '12831', text: 'I'm failing to grasp how the probability conversion works and so some further explanation may be needed ', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: 'null', muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: {}, creatorIds: [ 'kaiweynberg' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [ 'bayes_waterfall_diseasitis' ], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [], learnMore: [], requirements: [], subjects: [], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: {}, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '23011', pageId: '93x', userId: 'kaiweynberg', edit: '2', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2018-05-25 16:46:46', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '23010', pageId: '93x', userId: 'kaiweynberg', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2018-05-25 16:15:46', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'true', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }