{
localUrl: '../page/inductive_prior.html',
arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/inductive_prior',
rawJsonUrl: '../raw/21b.json',
likeableId: '976',
likeableType: 'page',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
edit: '4',
editSummary: '',
prevEdit: '3',
currentEdit: '4',
wasPublished: 'true',
type: 'wiki',
title: 'Inductive prior',
clickbait: 'Some states of pre-observation belief can learn quickly; others never learn anything. An "inductive prior" is of the former type.',
textLength: '883',
alias: 'inductive_prior',
externalUrl: '',
sortChildrenBy: 'likes',
hasVote: 'false',
voteType: '',
votesAnonymous: 'false',
editCreatorId: 'NateSoares',
editCreatedAt: '2016-03-03 05:10:29',
pageCreatorId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
pageCreatedAt: '2016-02-17 20:51:20',
seeDomainId: '0',
editDomainId: 'AlexeiAndreev',
submitToDomainId: '0',
isAutosave: 'false',
isSnapshot: 'false',
isLiveEdit: 'true',
isMinorEdit: 'false',
indirectTeacher: 'false',
todoCount: '1',
isEditorComment: 'false',
isApprovedComment: 'true',
isResolved: 'false',
snapshotText: '',
anchorContext: '',
anchorText: '',
anchorOffset: '0',
mergedInto: '',
isDeleted: 'false',
viewCount: '124',
text: 'An "inductive prior" is a state of belief, before seeing any evidence, which is conducive to learning when the evidence finally appears. A classic example would be observing a coin come up heads or tails many times. If the coin is biased to come up heads 1/4 of the time, the inductive prior from [21c Laplace's Rule of Succession] will start predicting future flips to come up tails with 3/4 probability. The [ maximum entropy prior] for the coin, which says that every coinflip has a 50% chance of coming up heads and that all sequences of heads and tails are equally probable, will never start to predict that the next flip will be heads, even after observing the coin come up heads thirty times in a row.\n\nThe prior in [11w] is another example of an inductive prior - far more powerful, far more complicated, and [1mk entirely unimplementable on physically possible hardware].',
metaText: '',
isTextLoaded: 'true',
isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false',
isSubscribedToUser: 'false',
isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false',
discussionSubscriberCount: '1',
maintainerCount: '1',
userSubscriberCount: '0',
lastVisit: '',
hasDraft: 'false',
votes: [],
voteSummary: [
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0',
'0'
],
muVoteSummary: '0',
voteScaling: '0',
currentUserVote: '-2',
voteCount: '0',
lockedVoteType: '',
maxEditEver: '0',
redLinkCount: '0',
lockedBy: '',
lockedUntil: '',
nextPageId: '',
prevPageId: '',
usedAsMastery: 'false',
proposalEditNum: '0',
permissions: {
edit: {
has: 'false',
reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page'
},
proposeEdit: {
has: 'true',
reason: ''
},
delete: {
has: 'false',
reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page'
},
comment: {
has: 'false',
reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member'
},
proposeComment: {
has: 'true',
reason: ''
}
},
summaries: {},
creatorIds: [
'EliezerYudkowsky',
'NateSoares'
],
childIds: [
'solomonoff_induction',
'laplace_rule_of_succession',
'universal_prior'
],
parentIds: [
'ignorance_prior'
],
commentIds: [],
questionIds: [],
tagIds: [
'stub_meta_tag'
],
relatedIds: [],
markIds: [],
explanations: [],
learnMore: [
{
id: '2253',
parentId: 'inductive_prior',
childId: 'laplace_rule_of_succession',
type: 'subject',
creatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev',
createdAt: '2016-06-17 21:58:56',
level: '2',
isStrong: 'false',
everPublished: 'true'
}
],
requirements: [],
subjects: [],
lenses: [],
lensParentId: '',
pathPages: [],
learnMoreTaughtMap: {},
learnMoreCoveredMap: {},
learnMoreRequiredMap: {},
editHistory: {},
domainSubmissions: {},
answers: [],
answerCount: '0',
commentCount: '0',
newCommentCount: '0',
linkedMarkCount: '0',
changeLogs: [
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '14126',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '0',
type: 'newChild',
createdAt: '2016-06-20 20:24:39',
auxPageId: 'universal_prior',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '8131',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'NateSoares',
edit: '4',
type: 'newEdit',
createdAt: '2016-03-03 05:10:29',
auxPageId: '',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7744',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'NateSoares',
edit: '3',
type: 'newEdit',
createdAt: '2016-02-24 18:31:23',
auxPageId: '',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7350',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '2',
type: 'newTeacher',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 21:28:31',
auxPageId: 'laplace_rule_of_succession',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7348',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '0',
type: 'deleteRequiredBy',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 21:28:26',
auxPageId: 'laplace_rule_of_succession',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7336',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '2',
type: 'newRequiredBy',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:53:58',
auxPageId: 'laplace_rule_of_succession',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7326',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '2',
type: 'newChild',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:52:13',
auxPageId: 'solomonoff_induction',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7323',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '2',
type: 'newEdit',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:51:56',
auxPageId: '',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7321',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '1',
type: 'newChild',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:51:34',
auxPageId: 'laplace_rule_of_succession',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7320',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '1',
type: 'newEdit',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:51:20',
auxPageId: '',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7319',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '0',
type: 'newTag',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:33:31',
auxPageId: 'stub_meta_tag',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '7317',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'EliezerYudkowsky',
edit: '0',
type: 'newParent',
createdAt: '2016-02-17 20:33:19',
auxPageId: 'ignorance_prior',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
},
{
likeableId: '0',
likeableType: 'changeLog',
myLikeValue: '0',
likeCount: '0',
dislikeCount: '0',
likeScore: '0',
individualLikes: [],
id: '3323',
pageId: 'inductive_prior',
userId: 'AlexeiAndreev',
edit: '0',
type: 'newParent',
createdAt: '2015-11-06 20:49:07',
auxPageId: '147',
oldSettingsValue: '',
newSettingsValue: ''
}
],
feedSubmissions: [],
searchStrings: {},
hasChildren: 'true',
hasParents: 'true',
redAliases: {},
improvementTagIds: [],
nonMetaTagIds: [],
todos: [],
slowDownMap: 'null',
speedUpMap: 'null',
arcPageIds: 'null',
contentRequests: {}
}