{ localUrl: '../page/p_value.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/p_value', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/9wd.json', likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], pageId: 'p_value', edit: '2', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '1', currentEdit: '2', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'wiki', title: 'P-value', clickbait: 'The probability of observing the sample data we have _actually_ observed; the sauce behind significance testing.', textLength: '1139', alias: 'p_value', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'likes', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'StephenFox', editCreatedAt: '2020-01-02 21:20:00', pageCreatorId: 'StephenFox', pageCreatedAt: '2020-01-02 18:23:42', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: '3538', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '3', isEditorComment: 'false', isApprovedComment: 'false', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: '', anchorText: '', anchorOffset: '0', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '2', text: '> \\[A\\] __p-value__ is the probability of our observing the sample data we have observed when, in fact, the two population averages are identical.\n> - Anthony Davies, Understanding Statistics (2017)\n\n## An Intuitive Explanation ##\n\nImagine you are comparing two observations (a la some difference of means test): the mean and standard deviation of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment-to-population_ratio employment rate] in California and New York, USA.\n\nYou can think of the **p-value** as the probability that the apparent difference in employment rate between California and New York is _due to random chance_. \n\nThink about this:\n\n* The higher that probability, the more likely any disparity can be (effectively) written off.\n* The lower that probability, the more significant the difference is and more you should consider investigating further.\n\nClosely related to this idea is [statistically_significant statistical significance], where a p-value of 0.05 is typical and 0.01 is used in more stringent trial.\n\n[todo: Mathematical explanation]\n\n[todo: link into a statistics learning path]\n\n[todo: equation from mean-value test]', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: 'null', muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, proposeComment: { has: 'true', reason: '' } }, summaries: {}, creatorIds: [ 'StephenFox' ], childIds: [], parentIds: [], commentIds: [], questionIds: [], tagIds: [], relatedIds: [], markIds: [], explanations: [], learnMore: [], requirements: [], subjects: [], lenses: [], lensParentId: '', pathPages: [], learnMoreTaughtMap: {}, learnMoreCoveredMap: {}, learnMoreRequiredMap: {}, editHistory: {}, domainSubmissions: {}, answers: [], answerCount: '0', commentCount: '0', newCommentCount: '0', linkedMarkCount: '0', changeLogs: [ { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '23236', pageId: 'p_value', userId: 'StephenFox', edit: '2', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2020-01-02 21:20:00', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: '' }, { likeableId: '0', likeableType: 'changeLog', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '0', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '0', individualLikes: [], id: '23235', pageId: 'p_value', userId: 'StephenFox', edit: '1', type: 'newEdit', createdAt: '2020-01-02 18:23:42', auxPageId: '', oldSettingsValue: '', newSettingsValue: 'Initial work in articulating what a p-value is.' } ], feedSubmissions: [], searchStrings: {}, hasChildren: 'false', hasParents: 'false', redAliases: {}, improvementTagIds: [], nonMetaTagIds: [], todos: [], slowDownMap: 'null', speedUpMap: 'null', arcPageIds: 'null', contentRequests: {} }