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  title: '"Is "-1 against" the same as "+1 for"?\n\nExpressi..."',
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  anchorContext: 'Answer\n\n89% is around 8 times as much as 11%, so we start out with ${^-3}$ bits of belief that a random oyster contains a pearl\\.\n\nFull oysters are 1/2 as likely to be blue as empty oysters, so seeing that an oyster is blue is ${^-1}$ bits of evidence against it containing a pearl\\.\n\nPosterior belief should be around ${^-4}$ bits or $(1 : 16)$ against, or a probability of 1/17\\.\\.\\. so a bit more than 5% \\(1/20\\) maybe?  \\(Actually 5\\.88%\\.\\)\n\n\n\n',
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  text: 'Is "-1 against" the same as "+1 for"?\n\nExpressing the first practical example entirely in terms of negative numbers seems like a poor pedagogical choice.\n\nPhrasing as "3 bits against" and then "a further 1 bit against" may help.\n\nAdding that the blue ones are not a great pick if you want pearls may help people understand the direction of "against".',
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