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  text: '\n[summary: I'm a bayesian rationalist disciple of Christ.]\n\nI have been a science-lover pretty much as long as I have human memories, but for most of my life I was a Traditional Rationalist like my father, openly cultivating the virtue of being able to be proven wrong, albeit actually waiting for a mountain of evidence to eventually do so (and sometimes doing it).\n\nI intend to write an answer to [How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3](http://lesswrong.com/lw/jr/how_to_convince_me_that_2_2_3/)'s question "*what situation would convince you of the truth of Islam?*", being a non-numerophobe Christian who knows Bayes's theorem (and actually reads E.T. Jayne…).\n\nI would say that my personal experiences led me to have approximately the following posterior probabilities:\n\n- 98% sure God exists\n- 95% sure God loves us and will act in our lives to our benefit\n- 90% sure God is adequately described in the Bible, like omniscient, omnipotent, and so on (that's where the doubts start to be really interesting…)\n- 65% sure that the Trinity is a crucial truth about God (so almost on the fence on this one)\n',
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