[summary: I'm a bayesian rationalist disciple of Christ.]
I have been a science-lover pretty much as long as I have human memories, but for most of my life I was a Traditional Rationalist like my father, openly cultivating the virtue of being able to be proven wrong, albeit actually waiting for a mountain of evidence to eventually do so (and sometimes doing it).
I intend to write an answer to How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3's question "what situation would convince you of the truth of Islam?", being a non-numerophobe Christian who knows Bayes's theorem (and actually reads E.T. Jayne…).
I would say that my personal experiences led me to have approximately the following posterior probabilities:
- 98% sure God exists
- 95% sure God loves us and will act in our lives to our benefit
- 90% sure God is adequately described in the Bible, like omniscient, omnipotent, and so on (that's where the doubts start to be really interesting…)
- 65% sure that the Trinity is a crucial truth about God (so almost on the fence on this one)