{ localUrl: '../page/likelihood_function.html', arbitalUrl: 'https://arbital.com/p/likelihood_function', rawJsonUrl: '../raw/56s.json', likeableId: '2993', likeableType: 'page', myLikeValue: '0', likeCount: '3', dislikeCount: '0', likeScore: '3', individualLikes: [ 'EricBruylant', 'NateSoares', 'SzymonWilczyski' ], pageId: 'likelihood_function', edit: '3', editSummary: '', prevEdit: '2', currentEdit: '3', wasPublished: 'true', type: 'wiki', title: 'Likelihood function', clickbait: '', textLength: '2100', alias: 'likelihood_function', externalUrl: '', sortChildrenBy: 'likes', hasVote: 'false', voteType: '', votesAnonymous: 'false', editCreatorId: 'AlexeiAndreev', editCreatedAt: '2016-08-02 17:12:50', pageCreatorId: 'NateSoares', pageCreatedAt: '2016-07-07 06:09:23', seeDomainId: '0', editDomainId: 'AlexeiAndreev', submitToDomainId: '0', isAutosave: 'false', isSnapshot: 'false', isLiveEdit: 'true', isMinorEdit: 'false', indirectTeacher: 'false', todoCount: '0', isEditorComment: 'false', isApprovedComment: 'true', isResolved: 'false', snapshotText: '', anchorContext: '', anchorText: '', anchorOffset: '0', mergedInto: '', isDeleted: 'false', viewCount: '169', text: 'Let's say you have a piece of evidence $e$ and a set of hypotheses $\\mathcal H.$ Each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ assigns some [56v likelihood] to $e.$ The function $\\mathcal L_{e}(H_i)$ that reports this likelihood for each $H_i \\in \\mathcal H$ is known as a "likelihood function."\n\nFor example, let's say that the evidence is $e_c$ = "Mr. Boddy was killed with a candlestick," and the hypotheses are $H_S$ = "Miss Scarlett did it," $H_M$ = "Colonel Mustard did it," and $H_P$ = "Mrs. Peacock did it." Furthermore, if Miss Scarlett was the murderer, she's 20% likely to have used a candlestick. By contrast, if Colonel Mustard did it, he's 10% likely to have used a candlestick, and if Mrs. Peacock did it, she's only 1% likely to have used a candlestick. In this case, the likelihood function is\n\n$$\\mathcal L_{e_c}(h) = \n\\begin{cases}\n0.2 & \\text{if $h = H_S$} \\\\\n0.1 & \\text{if $h = H_M$} \\\\\n0.01 & \\text{if $h = H_P$} \\\\\n\\end{cases}\n$$\n\nFor an example using a continuous function, consider a possibly-biased coin whose bias $b$ to come up heads on any particular coinflip might be anywhere between $0$ and $1$. Suppose we observe the coin to come up heads, tails, and tails. We will denote this evidence $e_{HTT}.$ The likelihood function over each hypothesis $H_b$ = "the coin is biased to come up heads $b$ portion of the time" for $b \\in [0, 1]$ is:\n\n$$\\mathcal L_{e_{HTT}}(H_b) = b\\cdot (1-b)\\cdot (1-b).$$\n\nThere's no reason to [1rk normalize] likelihood functions so that they sum to 1 — they aren't probability distributions, they're functions expressing each hypothesis' propensity to yield the observed evidence. For example, if the evidence was really obvious ($e_s$ = "the sun rose this morning,") it might be the case that almost all hypotheses have a very high likelihood, in which case the sum of the likelihood function will be much more than 1.\n\nLikelihood functions carry _absolute_ likelihood information, and therefore, they contain information that [1rq relative likelihoods] do not. Namely, absolute likelihoods can be used to check a hypothesis for [227 strict confusion].', metaText: '', isTextLoaded: 'true', isSubscribedToDiscussion: 'false', isSubscribedToUser: 'false', isSubscribedAsMaintainer: 'false', discussionSubscriberCount: '1', maintainerCount: '1', userSubscriberCount: '0', lastVisit: '', hasDraft: 'false', votes: [], voteSummary: [ '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0', '0' ], muVoteSummary: '0', voteScaling: '0', currentUserVote: '-2', voteCount: '0', lockedVoteType: '', maxEditEver: '0', redLinkCount: '0', lockedBy: '', lockedUntil: '', nextPageId: '', prevPageId: '', usedAsMastery: 'false', proposalEditNum: '0', permissions: { edit: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to edit this page' }, proposeEdit: { has: 'true', reason: '' }, delete: { has: 'false', reason: 'You don't have domain permission to delete this page' }, comment: { has: 'false', reason: 'You can't comment in this domain because you are not a member' }, 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